Electronic Systems Cost Modeling Laboratory

Of all the inhibitors to achieving a market for new technologies, the demonstration of cost savings is paramount. In today’s world, every engineer in the design process for an electronic product is tasked with understanding the economic tradeoffs associated with their decisions. The Electronics Systems Cost Modeling Laboratory (ESCML) at the University of Maryland develops modeling methodologies and tools that address all aspects of the life cycle cost of electronic systems from hardware fabrication and software development through sustainment and end of life.  The ESCML currently has programs that address:
 
  • Electronic part obsolescence driven design refresh planning 
  • Part obsolescence mitigation approach optimization and lifetime buy quantity prediction
  • Human skills obsolescence
  • Prognostic Health Management (PHM) driven maintenance planning and ROI
  • Availability modeling for systems (and design for availability)
  • Warranty analysis and linkages between warranty and reliability
  • Economic tradeoffs associated with hardware/software partitioning for systems on a chip 
  • Test and rework economics models for use in manufacturing cost modeling 
  • Size/cost tradeoff analysis for embedded and integrated passives in printed circuit boards 
  • Application of yielded cost to electronics assembly
  • Cost of ownership modeling for packaging and interconnect technologies, and MEMS
  • Web-based courseware development for electronic products and systems cost modeling

ESCML Electronic Part Obsolescence web site detailing research in obsolescence forecasting, design refresh planning, viability and lifetime buy forecasting.

Sustainment/Sustainability Definition

 

CALCE Research Programs

Current research project in the ESCML (as of Spring 2012) include:

Project Title Description Customer(s)
Cost Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions Development of methods to guide proactive decisions (e.g., supplier selection, part hoarding, and second sourcing) based on life cycle cost and risk for long field life products.

Relevant paper links: P1, P2, P3

 CALCE Consortium (Ericsson)
End-of-Repair/End-of-Maintenance Costs and Life Extensions Develop a method of calculating the effective end-of-maintenance (EOM) date for systems composed of multiple assemblies where each assembly has multiple parts.  The EOM date is the earliest date that existing (non-replenishable) inventories fail to support the demand for one or more specific parts causing the system to become unsustainable.

Software tool link: T1

Relevant paper links: P1

 CALCE Consortium (Harris)
The Cost of Lead-Free Implementation in Avionics and Aerospace Applications Enable the evaluation of application-specific cost/risk tradeoffs associated with performing or choosing not to perform various processes in a lead-free control plan. CALCE Consortium (Honeywell, PERM)
MOSA Back End for RF Systems Development and Support Development of a cost model and cost metrics that differentiate systems based on their "openness".   Openness is the degree to which a system is created from and supported by components (hardware and software) that conform to widely available standards. General Dynamics (USAF)
MOD-5 Replacement Cost Modeling (Company proprietary) Dow Chemical
Design-for-Availability: Designing Safety, Mission and Infrastructure Critical Systems to Meet Availability Targets The objective of the proposed project is to develop a new methodology that uses an availability requirement as an input to the process of determining the optimal design and management of a system (as opposed to an availability output that is a consequence of system design, management and logistics inputs).  Availability is the ability of a service or a system to be functional when it is requested for use or operation. Availability is a function of an item’s reliability (how often it fails) and maintainability (how efficiently it can be restored when it does fail).

Relevant paper links: P1, P2

 National Science Foundation
Knowledge Representation and Design for Managing Product Obsolescence

(Partners: Virginia Tech, California State University Fresno)

 This project investigates two novel research approaches to managing obsolescence challenges: (1) a knowledge representation scheme and management system that can facilitate information sharing and collaboration for obsolescence management and mitigation efforts between existing tools and across different organizations, and (2) fundamental principles, teachable methods, and guidelines for designing product architectures that can evolve, and hence can cope with changing requirements, enabling proactive obsolescence management across the entire product life cycle.

Relevant paper links: P1 (other relevant papers exist but without public links)

Site links: S1

 National Science Foundation
PEO Sub TI-04 Refresh Planning Study Design refresh planning analysis using MOCA. US Navy (PMS 425)

 

Selected completed research project in the ESCML:

Project Title Description Customer(s)
Quantifying the Value of Decisions Made After Prognostic Indication Using Real Options Using maintenance options (derived from real options) to valuate the option to wait to perform maintenance after prognostic indications.  Application to wind turbine maintenance.

Relevant paper links: P1, P2, P3

 CALCE PHM Consortium
Throwaway Electronics Development of cost models for trading off repair vs. throwaway for supporting long field life systems. CALCE Consortium (Boeing)
ESSM Refresh Planning Study Design refresh planning analysis using MOCA. WILLCOR (Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile Program Office)
Identification of Faults in Electronic Systems Using Monitored Data and Automatic Test System Results   US Navy STTR (via Qualtech Systems)
Design Refresh Planning for PMW-160 Design refresh planning analysis using MOCA. WILLCOR (US Navy)
Lead-Free Dynamic Repair Simulator The Lead-Free Dynamic Simulator (LFDS) models the flow of electronic assemblies to and through a repair process. The model includes the effects of repair prioritization, multiple possible failure mechanisms, no-fault-founds, and un-repairable units. Outputs include life cycle cost, module-level availability, repair time, and number of failures.  The model was developed to quantify the impacts of the conversion from tin-lead solder to lead-free solder, however, it can be used for modeling any type of electronic system repair process.

Relevant paper links: P1

Software tool link: T1

 CALCE Consortium (NSWC Crane)
V-22 Refresh Planning Design refresh planning analysis using MOCA.

Relevant paper links: P1

 CALCE Consoritum (US Navy, NAVAIR)
SBInet Demonstration Study Design refresh planning analysis using MOCA. US Navy, NAVAIR (via WILLCOR)

  
AN/ASN-128 DGNS Obsolescence Study (ARINC, Army CECOM) - Identify optimum design refresh plan for BAE Systems Doppler Global Positioning System Navigation System.  Includes non-electronic component obsolescence via the use of the ARINC Logistics Assessment and Risk Management System (ALARM) and correlation between MOCA and the ARINC Operational Impact Analysis (OIA) tool (inventory surveillance).

   

Forecasting and Proactive Management of Obsolescence for Sustainment-Dominated Systems (NSF) - Development of data mining based algorithms for forecasting electronic part obsolescence.

  

 Communications Systems Refresh Planning Study (DML, Argon ST) - Determined optimum refresh plan for a COTS-based UHF/VHF/HF ship-board communications system by performing sparing analysis based on contractual availability requirements and using the MOCA tool to generate budget constrained refresh plans that minimized lifecycle cost.

Reliability Testing and Cost Analysis of Electronic Interconnect Circuits Fabricated by Laser Direct-Write Processes (Potomac Photonics, MIPS) - Quantification of the manufacturing cost and reliability performance parameters of fine-feature electronic interconnect circuits produced at Potomac Photonics using proprietary laser direct-write processes.

Physics of Failure Approach to Sustainable Electronic Systems (PASES) (USAF ManTech) - decrease life cycle costs by managing life cycle risks associated with the design and manufacturing of sustainable military electronic systems by instituting a cradle-to-grave Physics of Failure (PoF) based program as a pro-active approach to achieving system reliability, manufacturability, technology risk management, and affordability.  This program integrates PoF based virtual qualification of systems with detailed life cycle cost modeling that includes models for assessing the economic impact of reliability and obsolescence.

Advanced Embedded Passives (NIST ATP) - develop and apply detailed cost models for substrates with embedded passives.  Using the models developed within this program, compare the economics of applications implemented with discrete passives to implementation using embedded passives.

Electronic Parts Obsolescence Initiative (EPOI) Life Cycle Cost Analysis (Frontier Technology, Inc., USAF) - Integration of the PASES developed Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis (MOCA) design refresh planning optimization tool with Frontier's Integrated Cost Estimation (ICE).

  

 Electronic Parts Obsolescence Initiative (EPOI) Life Cycle Cost Analysis (Northrop-Grumman) - Perform testing and verification of the PASES developed Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis (MOCA) design refresh planning optimization tool in the CPOM program.

Application of Bayesian Belief Networks to Technology Insertion Forecasting Concurrent with Design Refresh Optimization in Electronic Systems (Lockheed-Martin)

Hardware/Software Codesign Economic Analysis of Systems on a Chip (Foresight Systems, Inc.) - developing a software tool called Ghost that estimates hardware and software costs for a system on a chip.  The Ghost tool works concurrently with a commercial hardware/software codesign tool called Foresight that performs functional to architectural mapping and models the resulting system performance.  Ghost includes die size calculations, wafer fabrication costing, functional test costing, single chip package costing, and software development and support costing.

Test Economics for Decision Support Tools for PEBB (ONR) - A Jave-based process modeling tool that incorporates full Monte Carlo analysis has been developed for estimating manufacturing and testing costs associated with PEBB modules.  The cost analysis model is being used in a design optimization environment along with thermal and reliability analysis.  The cost modeling is being extended to allow the optimum placement of test and rework activities, and the optimization of fault coverage vs. cost for PEBB modules consisting of several power devices.

Web-Based Courseware Development (NSF/IEEE) - The ESCML is currently collaborating with the Center for Energy and Environmental Resources at the University of Texas to build internet-based educational materials that address the economic impact of electronic packaging technology, specifically the process of predicting the manufacturing and life cycle cost of electronic systems during their design and development process.  This effort extends the course discussed above by 1) developing and disseminating web-based instructional materials based for use in cost analysis courses and as supplemental materials for a broad cross-section of other courses in the electronics and electronic packaging areas; and 2) expanding of the elements within the course that address life cycle costs, particularly the concepts of life cycle assessment (LCA) and design for environment (DFE). Six internet-based modules are being developed in the areas indicated in the table below.  The modules developed will include a mixture of lecture materials (in textual and video format), case studies, on-line computational tools, bibliographies, links, and discussion/homework problems.  

Micromachined RF Technology (NASA JPL) - evaluate the manufacturing processes associated with fabricating advanced high-frequency modules composed of a combination of micromachined and electronic solid state components (Si/Ge HBTs). Evaluation of the manufacturing processes includes identification of the process steps, evaluating compatibility of the necessary processing, cost analysis, and yield analysis.  Within this program we have developed a process-based methodology for calculating the cost of adding MEMS devices to conventional ICs, including:
  • Fabrication cost
  • Wafer real estate cost
  • Throughput cost penalties
  • Cost due to yield changes

 

Pre-Publication Papers | Published Papers | ESCML Technical Reports
CALCE Articles | Cost Analysis and Sustainment of Electronic Systems Blog

Pre-Publication Papers, Chapters and Books

Z. Xiaomin, A. Kashani-Pour, A. Reza, and P. Sandborn, “Dynamic Performance Model for a Closed-Loop Supply Chain System with Uncertain Demand and Returns,” submitted to International Journal of Production Research, 2016.

M. Bruck, N. Goudarzi, and P. Sandborn, “A Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Model for Wind Farms with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs),” submitted to Renewable Energy.

R. Bakhshi and P. Sandborn, “Analysis of Wind Turbine Capacity Factor Improvement by Correcting Yaw Error Using LIDAR,” submitted to ASME 2017 International Mechanical Engineering Comgress and Exposition (IMECE2017).

R. Bakhshi and P. Sandborn, “A Return on Investment Model for the Implementation of New Technologies on Wind Turbines,” to be published IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy.

X. Lei and P. Sandborn, “Maintenance Scheduling Based on Remaining Useful Life Predictions for Wind Farms Managed Using Power Purchase Agreements,” to be published Renewable Energy, 2017.

Published Papers, Chapters and Books*

P. Sandborn and M. K. Williams, “Critical Skills Loss – The Effect of the Disappearance of Non-Replaceable Workforce,” The Aging Workforce Handbook: Individual, Organizational and Societal Challenges, ed. A.-S. Antoniou, R. Burke, C. Cooper, Emerald Publishing, pp. 269-298, 2017.

P. Sandborn, Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems, 2nd Edition, World Scientific Publishing, Co, 2017.

Kashani-Pour, N. Goudarzi, X. Lei, and P. Sandborn, “Product-Service Systems (PSS) Under Availability-Based Contracts: Maintenance Optimization and Concurrent System and Contract Design,” in Advances in Through-life Engineering Services, ed. L. Redding, R. Roy, and A. Shaw, Springer International, 2017.

M. Bruck, N. Goudarzi and P. Sandborn, “A Levelized Cost of energy (LCOE) Model for Wind Farms that Includes Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Energy Delivery Limits,” Proceedings of the ASME Power Conference, Charlotte, NC, June 2016.

R. Bakhshi and P. Sandborn, “The Effect of Yaw Error on the Reliability of Wind Turbine Blades,” Proceedings of the ASME Power Conference, Charlotte, NC, June 2016.

P. Sandborn, A. Kashani-Pour, and N. Goudarzi, “Outcome-Based Contracts – Towards Concurrently Designing Products and Contracts,” Proceedings of 5th International Through-Life Engineering Services Conference, Cranfield University, November 2016.

R. Villarejo, D. Galar, P. Sandborn and U. Kumar, “Context Driven Decisions for Railway Maintenance,” Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, Vol. 230, No. 5, pp. 1469-1483, July 2016.

X. Lei and P.A. Sandborn, “PHM-Based Wind Turbine Maintenance Optimization Using Real Options,” International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, 2016.

E. Settanni, N. E. Thenent, L. B. Newnes, G. Parry, Y. M. Goh, and P. Sandborn, “Applying Forgotten Lessons in Field Reliability Data Analysis to Performance-based Support Contracts,” Engineering Management Journal, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 3-13, 2016.

R. Kashani Pour, P. Sandborn, and Q. Cui, “Analytics of Methods for Designing Availability-Based Sustainment Contracts,” Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, Vol. 9, pp. 69-91, 2016.

X. Lei, P. Sandborn, and N. Goudarzi, “PHM Based Predictive Maintenance Option Model for Offshore Wind Farm O&M Optimization,” Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the PHM Society, San Diego, CA, October 2015.  

P. Sandborn, “Forecasting Technology and Part Obsolescence,” Proc. IMechE, Part B: Journal of Engineering Manufacture, 2015.  

P. Sandborn, “Managing Obsolescence Risk,” Through-life Engineering Services: Motivation, Theory and Practice, ed. L. Redding and R. Roy, Springer International, pp. 341-357, 2015. 

P. Sandborn and V.J. Prabhakar, “Forecasting and Impact of the Loss of the Critical Human Skills Necessary for Supporting Legacy Systems,” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 62, No. 3, pp. 361-371, August 2015.

X. Lei, P. Sandborn, R. Bakhshi, A. Kashani-Pour, and N. Goudarzi, “PHM Based Predictive Maintenance Optimization for Offshore Wind Farms,” Proceedings of the IEEE Prognostics and Health Management, Austin, TX, June 2015.

N. Goudarzi, X. Lei, and P. Sandborn, “Maintenance Optimization of a Wind Turbine: The Impact of an Accurate Wind Speed Measurement,” Proceedings of the ASME Power Conference, San Diego, CA, June 2015.

P. Sandborn and N. Goudarzi, “A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts,” Proceedings of the COG International Conference, Edinbough, Scotland, June 2015.

L. Zheng, J. Terpenny, and P. Sandborn, “Design Refresh Planning Models for Managing Obsolescence,” IIE Transactions, Vol 47, 2015

E. Lillie, P. Sandborn, and D. Humphrey, “Assessing the Value of a Lead-Free Solder Control Plan Using Cost-Based FMEA,” Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 55, No. 6, pp. 969-979, May 2015.

X. Lei, P. Sandborn, R. Bakhshi, and A. Kashani-Pour, “Development of a Maintenance Option Model to Optimize Offshore Wind Farm O&M,” Proceedings of EWEA Offshore, Copenhagen, Denmark, March 2015.

R. Bakhshi, P. Sandborn, X. Lei, and A. Kashani-Pour, “Return on Investment Modeling to Support Cost Avoidance Business Cases for Wind Farm O&M,” Proceedings of EWEA Offshore, Copenhagen, Denmark, March 2015.

P. Sandborn and N. Goudarzi, “A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts,” Proceedings 11th Annual Acquisition Research Symposium, Monterey, CA, May 2015.  

M.-H. Chang, P. Sandborn, M. Pecht, W.K. Yung, and W. Wang, “A Return on Investment Analysis of Applying Health Monitoring to LED Lighting Systems,”  Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 55, pp. 527-537, March 2015.

G. Haddad, P. A. Sandborn and M. G. Pecht, “Using Maintenance Options to Maximize the Benefits of Prognostics for Wind Farms,” Wind Energy 17, pp. 775-791, 2014.

T. Jazouli, P. Sandborn, and A. Kashani-Pour, “A Direct Method for Determining Design and Support Parameters to Meet an Availability Requirement - Parameters Affecting Both Downtime and Uptime,” International Journal of Performability Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 6, pp. 649-652, September 2014.

T. Jazouli, P. Sandborn, and A. Kashani-Pour, “A Direct Method for Determining Design and Support Parameters to Meet an Availability Requirement,” International Journal of Performability Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 211-225, March 2014.

D. Galar, L. Berges, P. Sandborn, and U. Kumar, “The Need for Aggregated Indicators in Performance Asset Management,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc – Maintenance and Reliability, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 120–127, 2014.

H. Allison, P. Sandborn, and B. Eriksson, “Optimal Sourcing and Buffering to Mitigate Supply-Chain Disruptions,” Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Buffalo, NY, August 2014.

P. Sandborn, Q. Cui, A. Kashani-Pour, and X. Zhu, “A New ‘Availability-Payment’ Model for Pricing Performance-Based Logistics Contracts,” Proceedings 11th Annual Acquisition Research Symposium, Monterey, CA, May 2014.

L. Zheng, P. Sandborn, J. Terpenny, and N. Orfi, “An Ontological Model and Method for Obsolescence Resolution and Management,” Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Flexible Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing (FAIM), San Antonio, TX, May 2014.

Konoza and P. Sandborn, “Evaluating the End of Maintenance Dates for Electronic Assemblies Composed of Obsolete Parts,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 136, No. 3, March 2014.

P. Sandborn, G. Haddad, A. Kashani-Pour, and X. Lei, “Development of a Maintenance Option Model to Optimize Offshore Wind Farm Sustainment,” Proceedings of SciTech, AIAA, January 2014.

D. Galar, L. Berges, P. Sandborn, and U. Kumar, “The Need for Aggregated Indicators in Performance Asset Management,” Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc – Maintenance and Reliability, 16 (1), pp. 120–127, 2014.

D. Galar, P. Sandborn, U. Kumar, and C-A Johansson, “SMART: Integrating Human Safety Risk Assessment with Asset Integrity,” Advances in Condition Monitoring of Machinery in Non-Stationary Operations, Springer-Verlag, 2013.

P. Sandborn, “Design for obsolescence risk management,” in Proceedings of 2nd International Through-Life Engineering Services Conference, Cranfield University, November 2013.

V.J. Prabhakar and P. Sandborn, “A Model for Comparing Sourcing Strategies for Parts in Long Life Cycle Products Subject to Long-Term Supply Chain Disruptions,” International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 228-249, 2013.

N. E. Thenent, E. Settanni, P. Sandborn, and L. B. Newnes, “Maintenance within Product Service Systems: Is Technical Knowledge Enough to Link Performance and Cost?” Proceedings of the Maintenance Performance Measurement and Management Conference, Lappeenranta, Finland, September 2013.

V.J. Prabhakar, H. Allison, P. Sandborn and B. Eriksson, “Optimizing Part Sourcing Strategies for Low-Volume, Long Life Cycle Products Using Second Sourcing and Part Hoarding,” in Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, August 2013.

Y. Ning, P. Sandborn, and M. Pecht, “Prognostics-Based Product Warranties,” Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management, Gaithersburg, MD, June 2013.

L. Zheng, R. Nelson III, J. Terpenny, and P. Sandborn, “Ontology-Based Knowledge Representation for Product Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting,” Journal of Computing and Information Science in Engineering, Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2013.

P. Sandborn, T. Jazouli, and G. Haddad, “Supporting Business Cases for PHM - Return on Investment and Availability Impacts,” in Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques, S. Kadry editor, IGI Global, 2012.

D. Galar, U. Kumar, and P. Sandborn, “O&M Efficiency Model: A Dependability Approach,” Proceedings of COMADEM, July 2012.

P. Sandborn, Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems, World Scientific, Singapore, 2013.  ERRATA

P. Sandborn, “Making Business Cases for Health Management - Return on Investment,” IVHM - The Business Case, ed. I. Jennions, SAE International, 2013.

G. Haddad, P. Sandborn and M. Pecht, “Using Real Options to Valuate Decisions for Systems with Prognostic Capabilities,” IVHM - The Business Case, ed. I. Jennions, SAE International, 2013.

R. Nelson III and P. Sandborn, “A New Class of Multi-Event Models for Determining the Optimum Refresh Frequency of Systems,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Orlando, FL, November 2012.

G. Haddad, P.A. Sandborn, and M.G. Pecht, “An Options Approach for Decision Support of Systems with Prognostic Capabilities,” IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 61, No. 4, pp. 872-883, December 2012.

Konoza, P. Sandborn, and A. Chaloupka, “An Analysis of the Electronic Assembly Repair Process for Lead-Free Parts Under Combined Loading Conditions,” IEEE Transactions on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology, Vol. 2, No. 9, pp. 1558-1567, September 2012.

P. Sandborn, V. J. Prabhakar, and A. Kusimo, “Modeling the Obsolescence of Critical Human Skills Necessary for Supporting Legacy Systems,” Proceedings ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, August 2012.  

L. Zheng, J. Terpenny, P. Sandborn, R. Nelson III, “Design Refresh Planning Models for Managing Obsolescence,” Proceedings ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, August 2012.  

R. Nelson III and P. Sandborn, “Strategic Management of Component Obsolescence Using Constraint-Driven Design Refresh Planning,” International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 99-120.

Bartels, U. Ermel, P. Sandborn and M. Pecht, Strategies for the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence, Wiley, 2012

Konoza and P. Sandborn, “An Evaluation of End of Maintenance Dates for Electronic Assemblies,” Proceedings of the Aircraft Airworthiness & Sustainment Conference, Baltimore, MD, April 2012.

V. Prabhakar and P. Sandborn, “A Part Total Ownership Cost Model for Long-Life Cycle Electronic Systems,” International J. of Computer Integrated Manufacturing, Vol. 25, Nos. 4-5, pp. 384-397, 2012.  

V. Prabhakar and P. Sandborn, “Part Sourcing Decisions of Long Life Cycle Products,” Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Washington DC, 2011.

R. Nelson III and P. Sandborn, “Strategic Management of Component Obsolescence Using Constraint-Driven Design Refresh Planning,” Proceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Washington DC, 2011.

P. Sandborn, A. Konoza, R. Nelson III, D. Gerdes, and M. Shamet, “The Evaluation of End-of-Repair/End-of-Maintenance Dates for Electronic Assemblies,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Hollywood, FL, August 2011.

P. Sandborn, A. Wilson, and T. Jazouli, “Disposable Electronics in Military and Avionics Systems,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Hollywood, FL, August 2011.

G. Haddad, P.A. Sandborn, T. Jazouli, M.G. Pecht, B. Foucher, and V. Rouet, “Guaranteeing High Availability of Wind Turbines,” Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Troyes, France, September 2011.  

G. Haddad, P. Sandborn, and M. Pecht, “Using Real Options to Manage Condition-Based Maintenance Enabled by PHM,” IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management, Denver, CO, June 2011.

T. Jazouli and P. Sandborn, “Using PHM to Meet Availability-Based Contracting Requirements,” IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management, Denver, CO, June 2011.

Chaloupka, P. Sandborn, and A. Konoza, “The Thermal Cycling Ramifications of Lead-Free Solder on the Electronic Assembly Repair Process,” IEEE Transactions on on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology, Vol. 1, No. 6, pp. 964-974, June 2011.

G. Haddad, P. Sandborn, and M. Pecht, “A Real Options Optimization Model to Meet Availability Requirements for Offshore Wind Turbines,” Proceedings of MFPT: The Applied Systems Health Management Conference, Virginia Beach, VA, May 2011.

L. Zheng, R. Nelson, III, J. Terpenny, P. Sandborn, “Ontology-Based Knowledge Representation for Product Life-Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting,” Proceedings of Industrial Engineering Research Conference, Reno, NV, May 2011.

P. Sandborn, V. Prabhakar and O. Ahmad, “Forecasting Technology Procurement Lifetimes for Use in Managing DMSMS Obsolescence,” Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 51, pp. 392-399, 2011.

P. Sandborn, “Calculating the Return on Investment for DMSMS Management,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Las Vegas, NV, October 2010.

R. Nelson and P. Sandborn, “Managing Coupled Hardware and Software Obsolescence Using Constraint-Driven Design Refresh Planning,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Las Vegas, NV, October 2010.

V. Prabhakar and P. Sandborn, “Optimizing the Sourcing of Electronic Components for Long Life Cycle Systems,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Las Vegas, NV, October 2010.

T. Jazouli and P. Sandborn, “A Design for Availability Approach for Use with PHM,” Proceedings of the International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management, Portland, OR, October 2010.

R. Rai, U. Tekunoff, C. Schafer, P. Sandborn, and J. Terpenny, “Mitigating E-Waste and Osborne Effect: A Product Service System (PSS) Based Design Approach to Create Obsolescence Resistant Products,” Proceedings of the ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, August 2010.

E.B. Magrab, S.K. Gupta, F.P. McClusky, and P.A. Sandborn, Integrated Product and Process Design and Development - The Product Realization Process, 2nd Edition, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2010.

P. Sandborn, “System-Level DMSMS Management,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Orlando, FL, September 2009.

K. Feldman, T. Jazouli, and P. Sandborn, “A Methodology for Determining the Return on Investment Associated with Prognostics and Health Management,” IEEE Trans. on Reliability, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 305-316, June 2009.

P. Sandborn, J. Myers, T. Barron, and M. McCarthy , "Using Teardown Analysis as a Vehicle to Teach Electronic Systems Manufacturing Cost Modeling," International Journal of Engineering Education, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 42-52, 2009.

P. Sandborn and J. Myers, "Designing Engineering Systems for Sustainment," Handbook of Performability Engineering, ed. K.B. Misra, Springer, pp. 81-103, London, 2008.

P. Sandborn and K. Feldman, “The Economics of Prognostics and Health Management,” Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics, ed. M. G. Pecht, pp. 85-118, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, 2008.

K. Feldman, P. Sandborn and T. Jazouli, “The Analysis of Return on Investment for PHM Applied to Electronic Systems,” Proceedings of the International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management, Denver, CO, October 2008.

P. Sandborn and R. Nelson III, “Constraint-Driven Refresh Planning of Systems Subject to Obsolescence,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Palm Springs, CA, September 2008.

P. Sandborn and V. Prabhakar, “An Electronic Part Total Ownership Cost Model,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Palm Springs, CA, September 2008.

P. Sandborn and O. Ahmad, “Advanced Part Obsolescence Forecasting as an Enabler for Strategic Management of DMSMS Problems,” Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Palm Springs, CA, September 2008.

P. Sandborn, V. Prabhakar, and B. Eriksson "The Application of Product Platform Design to the Reuse of Electronic Components Subject to Long-Term Supply Chain Disruptions," Proceedings of the ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, New York, NY, Aug. 2008.

P. Sandborn, “Strategic Management of DMSMS in Systems,” DSP Journal, pp. 24-30, April/June 2008.

Kleyner and P. Sandborn, "Minimizing Life Cycle Cost by Managing Product Dependability via Validation Plan and Warranty Return Cost," International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 112, No. 2, pp. 796-807, April 2008.

P. Sandborn, "Trapped on Technology’s Trailing Edge,” IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 42-45, 54, 56-58, April 2008.

P. Sandborn and P. A. Sandborn, “A Random Trimming Approach for Obtaining High-Precision Embedded Resistors,” IEEE Trans. on Advanced Packaging, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 76-81, February 2008.

P. Sandborn, "Software Obsolescence - Complicating the Part and Technology Obsolescence Management Problem," IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 886-888, December 2007.

P.A. Sandborn and C. Wilkinson, "A Maintenance Planning and Business Case Development Model for the Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Electronic Systems," Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 47, No. 12, pp. 1889-1901, December 2007.

E. Scanff, K.L. Feldman, S. Ghelam, P. Sandborn, M. Glade, and B. Foucher, "Life Cycle Cost Estimation of Using Prognostic Health Management (PHM) for Helicopter Avionics," Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 47, No. 12, pp. 1857-1864, December 2007.

P. Sandborn and M. Pecht, "Guest Editorial: Introduction to Special Section on Electronic Systems Prognostics and Health Management," Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 47, No. 12, pp. 1847-1848, December 2007.

P. Sandborn, V. Prabhakar, and D. Feng, "DMSMS Lifetime Buy Characterization Via Data Mining of Historical Buys," Proceedings DMSMS Conference, Orlando, FL, November 2007.

P. A. M. Sandborn and P. A. Sandborn, “Using Embedded Resistor Emulation to Teach Measurement Methods and Associated Engineering Model Development,” International Journal of Engineering Education, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 834-840, 2007.

Etienne and P. Sandborn, "Optimizing Embedded Passive Content in Printed Circuit Boards," IEEE Trans. on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 246-257, October 2007.

P. Sandborn, F. Mauro, and R. Knox, "A Data Mining Based Approach to Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting," IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 397-401, September 2007.

K. Feldman and P. Sandborn, "Integrating Technology Obsolescence Considerations into Product Design Planning," Proceedings of the ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Las Vegas, NV, Sept. 2007.

P. Sandborn, "Designing for Technology Obsolescence Management," Proceedings of the 2007 Industrial Engineering Research Conference, Nashville, TN, May 2007.

J. Myers and P. Sandborn, "Integration of Technology Roadmapping Information and Business Case Development into DMSMS-Driven Design Refresh Planning of the V-22 Advanced Mission Computer," Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference, Palm Springs, CA, April 2007.

Feng, P. Singh, and P. Sandborn, "Optimizing Lifetime Buys to Minimize Lifecycle Cost," Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference, Palm Springs, CA, April 2007.

P. Sandborn and R. Jafreen, "Cost of Accommodating the Transition to Lead-Free Electronics," Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference, Palm Springs, CA, April 2007.

P. Sandborn, R. Jung, R. Wong, and J. Becker, "A Taxonomy and Evaluation Criteria for DMSMS Tools, Databases and Services," Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference, Palm Springs, CA, April 2007.

D.P. Fitzgerald, J.W. Herrmann, P.A. Sandborn, L.C. Schmidt, and T.H. Gogoll, "Design for Environment (DfE): Strategies, Practices, Guidelines, Methods, and Tools," in Environmentally Conscious Mechanical Design, M. Kutz editor, pp. 1-24, 2007.

Kleyner and P. Sandborn, "Forecasting the Cost of Unreliability for Products with Two-Dimensional Warranties," Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Estoril, Portugal, pp. 1903-1908, Sept 18-22, 2006.

P. Sandborn and G. Plunkett, "The Other Half of the DMSMS Problem - Software Obsolescence," DMSMS Knowledge Sharing Portal Newsletter, Vol. 4, Issue 4, pp. 3 and 11, June 2006.

P. Singh and P. Sandborn, "Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning for Sustainment-Dominated Systems," The Engineering Economist, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 115-139, April-June 2006.

P. Sandborn, J. Myers, T. Barron, and M. McCarthy , "Using Reverse Engineering as a Vehicle to Teach Electronic Systems Manufacturing Cost Modeling," Proceedings of the International Electronics Packaging Education Conference (at the Electronic Components and Technology Conference), May 30, 2006.

Z. Shi and P. Sandborn, "Optimization of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Location(s) and Characteristics in Electronic System Assembly," Journal of Electronic Testing Theory and Applications (JETTA), Vol. 22, pp. 49-60, 2006

D.P. Fitzgerald, J.W. Herrmann, P.A. Sandborn, L.C. Schmidt, and T.H. Gogoll, "Beyond Tools: A Design for Environment Process," International Journal of PerformabilityEngineering, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 105-120, October 2005.

Kleyner and P. Sandborn, “A Warranty Forecasting Model Based on Piecewise Statistical Distributions and Stochastic Simulation,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp 207-214, June 2005.

P. Sandborn, “An Assessment of Embedded Resistor Trimming and Rework,” IEEE Trans. on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 176-186, April 2005.

P. Sandborn, F. Mauro, and R. Knox, "A Data Mining Based Approach to Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting," Proc. DMSMS Conference, Nashville, TN, April 2005.

P. Singh and P. Sandborn, “Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronic Systems,” Proc. Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), Arlington, VA, Jan. 2005.

P. Sandborn, “A Decision Support Model for Determining the Applicability of Prognostics Health Management (PHM) Approaches to Electronic Systems,” Proc. Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), Arlington, VA, Jan. 2005.  --  note, this paper has been superseded by the following paper: link

P. Sandborn, "Beyond Reactive Thinking – We Should be Developing Pro-Active Approaches to Obsolescence Management Too!," DMSMS Center of Excellence Newsletter, Vol. 2, Issue 3, pp. 4 and 9, July 2004.

P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronics Systems," Logistics Spectrum, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 25-28, April-June 2004.

P. Singh, P. Sandborn, T. Geiser, and D. Lorenson, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning," International Journal of Agile Manufacturing, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 23-32, 2004.

Kleyner, P. Sandborn, and J. Boyle, " Minimization of Life Cycle Costs Through Optimization of the Validation Program – A Test Sample Size and Warranty Cost Approach," Proc. Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 2004.

P. Sandborn, T. Herald, J. Houston, and P. Singh, "Optimum Technology Insertion into Systems Based on the Assessment of Viability," IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 734-738, December 2003. 

M. Wood, D. Fritz, D. Sawoska, Frank Durso, L. Salzano, and P. Sandborn, "Performance of Plated Additive Resistors," Proc. Taiwan Printed Circuit Association Meeting, October 2003.

Z. Shi and P. Sandborn, "Optimization of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Location and Characteristics in Electronic Systems Assembly Using Real-Coded Genetic Algorithms," Proc. International Test Conference, October 2003.

P. Sandborn, B. Etienne, J. W. Herrmann, and M. M. Chincholkar, "Cost and Production Analysis for Substrates with Embedded Passives," Circuit World, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 25-30, 2003.

Z. Shi and P. Sandborn, "Modeling Test, Diagnosis, and Rework Operations and Optimzing Their Location in General Manufacturing Processes," Proceedings ASME 8th Design for Manufacturing Conference, Chicago, IL, September 2003.

P. Sandborn, "A Review of the Economics of Embedded Passives," in Proceedings of InterPACK, July 2003.

P. Sandborn, "The Economics of Embedded Passives," in Integrated Passive Component Technology, R. Ulrich and L. Schaper editors, Wiley-IEEE Press, 2003.

J. P. Dougherty, J. Galvagni, L. Marcanti, R.  Sheffield, P. Sandborn, and R. Ulrich, "The NEMI Roadmap: Integrated Passives Technology and Economics," Keynote Paper, Proceedings of the Capacitor and Resistor Technology Symposium (CARTS), Scottsdale, AZ, April 2003.

P. Singh, P. Sandborn, D. Lorenson, and T. Geiser, "Determining Optimum Redesign Plans for Avionics Considering Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasts," in Proc. World Aviation Congress, Phoenix, AZ, November 2002.  (SAE Technical Paper: 2002-1-3012)

Humphrey, W. Shawlee, P. Sandborn, and D. Lorenson, "Aging Aircraft Usable Life and Wear-out Issues," in Proc. World Aviation Congress, Phoenix, AZ, November 2002.  (SAE Technical Paper: 2002-1-3013)

P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization," in Proc. FAA/DoD/NASA Aging Aircraft Conference, San Francisco, CA, September 2002.

P. Singh, P. Sandborn, T. Geiser, and D. Lorenson, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization," Proc. International Conference on Concurrent Engineering, pp. 961-970, Cranfield University, UK, July 2002.

Ragan, P. Sandborn, and P. Stoaks, “A Detailed Cost Model for Concurrent Use With Hardware/Software Co-Design,” IEEE Design Automation Conference, New Orleans, LA, pp. 269-274, June 2002.

M. Pecht, R. Solomon, P. Sandborn, C. Wilkinson, and D. Das, Life Cycle Forecasting, Mitigation Assessment and Obsolescence Strategies, CALCE EPSC Press, 2002.

T. Trichy, P. Sandborn, R. Raghavan, and S. Sahasrabudhe, “A New Test/Diagnosis/Rework Model for Use in Technical Cost Modeling of Electronic Systems Assembly,” in Proceedings of the International Test Conference, pp. 1108-1117, November 2001.

P. Sandborn, B. Etienne and D. Becker, "Analysis of the Cost of Embedded Passives in Printed Circuit Boards," in Proceedings of the IPC Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL, October 2001.

P. A. Sandborn, B. Etienne, and G. Subramanian, “Application-Specific Economic Analysis of Integral Passives,” IEEE Trans. on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 203-213, July 2001.

Becker and P. Sandborn, “On the Use of Yielded Cost in Modeling Electronic Assembly Processes,” IEEE Trans. on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 195-202, July 2001.

Becker and P. Sandborn, “Using Yielded Cost as a Metric for Modeling Manufacturing Processes,” ASME 6th Design for Manufacturing Conference, Pittsburgh PA, September 2001.

J. Dougherty, J. Galvagni, L. Marcanti, P. Sandborn, R. Charbonneau, and R.  Sheffield, "The NEMI Roadmap Perspective on Integrated Passives," Proceedings of the European Microelectronics and Packaging Conference & Exhibition, May 2001.

P. Sandborn and C. F. Murphy, "Progress on Internet-Based Educational Material Development for Electronic Products and Systems Cost Analysis," in Proc. of the Electronic Components and Technology Conference, May 2001, pp. 1261-1266.

Etienne and P. A. Sandborn, “Application-Specific Economic Analysis of Integral Passives,” in Proceedings of the IMAPS Advanced Packaging Materials Processes, Properties and Interfaces Symposium, Braselton GA, March 2001, pp. 399-404.

R. Solomon, P. Sandborn and M. Pecht, “Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting,” IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, December 2000, pp. 707-713.

P. Sandborn, D. T. Allen, and C. F. Murphy, "New Course Development in Products and Systems Cost Analysis," in Proc. of the Electronic Components and Technology Conference, May 2000, pp. 1021-1026.

P. Sandborn and P. Spletter, "A Comparison of Routing Estimation Methods for Microelectronic Modules," Microelectronics International, December 1999, pp. 36-41.

P. A. Sandborn and C. F. Murphy, "A Model for Optimizing the Assembly and Disassembly of Electronic Systems," IEEE Trans. on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing, vol. 22, no. 2, April 1999, pp. 105-117.

M. Lindell, P. Stoaks, D. Carey, and P. A. Sandborn, "The Role of Physical Implementation in Virtual Prototyping of Electronic Systems," IEEE Trans. on Components, Packaging, and Manufacturing Technology – Part A, December 1998, pp. 610-616.

P. A. Sandborn and M. Vertal, "Packaging Tradeoff Analysis: Predicting Cost and Performance During System Design," IEEE Design & Test of Computers, vol. 15, no. 3, July-September 1998, pp. 10-19.

P. A. Sandborn and C. F. Murphy, "Material-Centric Modeling of PWB Fabrication: An Economic and Environmental Comparison of Conventional and Photovia Board Fabrication Processes," IEEE Trans. on Components, Packaging, and Manufacturing Technology – Part C, vol. 21, April 1998, pp. 97-110.

P. E. Stoaks and P. A. Sandborn, "Modeling the Impact of Packaging During High-Level System Design: The Integration of Physical Partitioning into Virtual Prototyping," in Proc. of the High-Level Electronic Design Conference, San Jose, CA, pp. 197-204, Oct. 1997.

A. Palesko and P. A. Sandborn, "System-Level Impact of Early Packaging Decisions," in Proc. of INTERpack, June 1997.

F. Murphy, M. Abadir, and P. Sandborn, "Economic Analysis of Test and Known Good Die or Multichip Assemblies," Journal of Electronic Testing (JETTA), pp. 151-166, 1997.

*This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by the copyright holder. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder. 

 

ESCML Technical Reports (contact Peter Sandborn for access to these reports)

ESCML 00-1

T. Trichy, Full Monte Carlo Technical Cost Modeling with Detailed Test/Rework Analysis for Use in a Multi-Attribute Optimization Environment, June 2000.

ESCML 00-2

G. Subramanian, Analysis Methods for Performing Size/Cost Tradeoff Analysis for the Use of Embedded Passives in Printed Wiring Boards, July 2000.

ESCML 00-3

R. Sabrahmanyam, The Economic Impact of Component Replacement in Electronic Systems, July 2000.

ESCML 00-4

J. Radhakrishnan, A Process-Based Cost of Ownership Model for the Inclusion of High-Frequency Micromachined Structures on a Conventional IC, September 2000.

ESCML 01-1

S. Sahasrabudhe, Implementation and Interpretation of Failure Free Operating Periods and Associated Confidence Limits in Electronic Systems Using the 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution, May 2001.

ESCML 01-2

D. Ragan, Detailed Cost Modeling for use with Hardware/Software Co-Design of a System on a Chip, July 2001.

ESCML 01-3

R. Raghavan, Analysis of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Operation Placement in the Technical Cost Modeling of Advanced Electrical Power System Modules, July 2001.

ESCML 01-4

P. Singh, Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization for Electronic Systems, December 2001.

ESCML 02-1

MOCA User's Guide, Version 1.2, April 2002.

ESCML 02-2

D. Becker, Development and Application of Yielded Cost in Electronic Manufacturing Process Improvement, May 2002.

ESCML 02-3

MOCA Design Refresh Analysis of a Northrop Grumman F-22 Radar Unit, November 2003.

ESCML 02-4

D. Calhan, An Application of the 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution to the Estimation of the Failure Free Operating Period of Electronic Systems, December 2002.

ESCML 03-1

MOCA User's Guide, Version 1.3

ESCML 03-2

Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology for PartMiner, September 2003.

ESCML 03-3

L. Salzano, Experimental Reliability Assessment and Failure Analysis for Reworked and Trimmed Embedded Resistor Technologies, September 2003.

ESCML 03-4

P. Sandborn, A Decision Support Model That Explores the Applicability of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) to Electronic Systems as a Function of the Degree to Which Failures in Electronic Systems are Deterministic in Nature and the Confidence Level Associated with PHM Forecasts, June 2003.

ESCML 03-5

Z. Shi, Optimization of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Location(s) and Characteristics in Electronic Systems Assembly, July 2003.

ESCML 03-6

P. Singh, Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Obsolescence Sensitive Sustainment-Dominated Systems, December 2003.

ESCML 03-7

B. Etienne, Cost and Size Analysis and Optimization of Embedded Passives in Printed Circuit Boards, December 2003.

ESCML 04-1

MOCA Design Refresh Analysis of a Lockheed Martin MTADS Video Processor Card, January 2004.

ESCML 04-2

A. Goswami, Design Refresh Planning for System Software Changes Precipitated by Hardware Obsolescence, 2004.

ESCML 04-3

Schlumberger Part Selection and Management Benchmarking Report, July 2004.

ESCML 04-4

Q-Star/MOCA Interface - Supplement to MOCA User's Guide, V. 1.3, August 2004.

ESCML 04-5

P. Singh, Demonstration Integration of Design Refresh Costing and Design Refresh Planning - LPD-17 NDU Case Study, November 2004.

ESCML 05-1

B. Etienne, The Development of Cost and Size Analysis for the Assessment of Embedded Passives in Printed Circuit Boards, March 2005.

ESCML 05-2

MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.1, July 2005.

ESCML 05-3

A. Kleyner, Determining Optimal Reliability Targets Through Analysis of Product Validation Cost and Field Warranty Data, November 2005.

ESCML 05-4

MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.2 Supplement, December 2005.

ESCML 06-1

LOTE User's Guide, Version 1, February 2006.

ESCML 06-2

MOCA (Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis) DGNS Case Study, June 2006.

ESCML 07-1

LOTE User's Guide, Version 2, January 2007.

ESCML 07-2

D. Feng, Optimizing Lifetime Buy Quantities to Minimize Lifecycle Cost, May 2007.

ESCML 07-3

J. Myers, Integration of Technology Roadmapping Information into DMSMS-Driven Design Refresh Planning of the V-22 Advanced Mission Computer, May 2007.

ESCML 07-4

MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.3 Supplement, June 2007.

ESCML 08-1

Prognostics and Health Management Return on Investment Tool User's Guide, Version 2.0, February 2008.

ESCML 08-2

K. Feldman, Electronic Prognostics and Health Management: A Return on Investment Analysis, April 2008.

ESCML 08-3

R. Jafreen, A Cost Model for Assessing the Transition to Lead-Free Electronics, April 2008.

ESCML 08-4

Prognostics and Health Management Return on Investment Tool User's Guide, Version 2.1, September 2008.

ESCML 09-1

Prognostics and Health Management Return on Investment Tool User's Guide, Version 2.2, February 2009.

ESCML 09-2

Prognostics and Health Management Return on Investment Tool User's Guide, Version 2.3, April 2009.

ESCML 09-3

MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.4, October 2009.

ESCML 09-4

A. Chaloupka, Lead-Free Electronics Use and Dynamic Repair Process Simulation, December 2009.

ESCML 10-1

LFDS 2.0 User's Manual, March 2010.

ESCML 11-1

G. Haddad, An Options Approach to Quantify the Value of Decisions After Prognostics Indication, December 2011.

ESCML 11-2

T. Jazouli, A "Design for Availability" Methodology for Systems Design and Support, December 2011.

ESCML 11-3

End of Repair/End of Maintenance Tool User's Guide, October 2011.

ESCML 12-1

PEO Sub TI-04 Refresh Planning Study, March 2012.

ESCML 12-2

V. Prabhakar, Electronic Part Total Cost of Ownership and Sourcing Decisions for Long Life Cycle Products, March 2012.

ESCML 12-3

H. Allison, Supply-Chain Disruption Risk Assessment and Mitigation Cost Model, December 2012.

 

Electronic Part Obsolescence Management Course | Electronic Products and Systems Cost Analysis Course | ESCML Graduate Student Opportunities
CALCE Professional Development | EPS Graduate Program

Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting, Mitigation and Management

This course is offered as: 

  • 1 day industry short course

The rapid growth of the electronics industry has spurred dramatic changes in the electronic parts that comprise the products and systems that the public buys.  Increases in speed, reductions in feature size and supply voltage, and changes in interconnection and packaging technologies are becoming events that occur nearly monthly.  Consequently, many of the electronic parts that compose a product have a life cycle that is significantly shorter than the life cycle of the product they go into.  A part becomes obsolete when it is no longer manufactured, either because demand has dropped to low enough levels that it is not practical for manufacturers to continue to make it, or because the materials or technologies necessary to produce it are no longer available.

If a product requires a long application life, then a parts obsolescence management strategy may be required.  Many obsolescence mitigation approaches have been proposed and are being used. These approaches include: lifetime or last time buys, part substitution, and redesign.  Several other mitigation approaches are also practical in some situations: aftermarket sources, emulation, reclaim, and uprating.  This course reviews the various mitigation approaches, and available methods of forecasting the obsolescence of parts.  In addition, pro-active methods for managing obsolescence are discussed, including design refresh planning and the use of ASICs.  The course is divided into the following sections:

  • System Sustainment
  • Introduction to Electronic Part Obsolescence
  • Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting
  • Electronic Part Obsolescence Mitigation
  • Pro-Active Obsolescence Management
  • Strategic Obsolescence Management
  • Total Cost of Ownership of Electronic Parts

The course includes a review of commercial databases and associated decision support tool offerings.  A detailed outline of the course and list of previous course offerings is available here.  Contact Peter Sandborn at CALCE for more information.

 

Electronic Product and System Cost Analysis Course

This course is offered as: 

  • ENME 770/ENRE 648B at the University of Maryland (Fall of odd years)
  • Web-based semester graduate course
  • 2 or 3 day industry short course

The objective of this course is to provide students with an in-depth understanding of the process of predicting the cost of systems. Elements of traditional engineering economics are melded with manufacturing process modeling, life cycle cost management concepts, and selected concepts from environmental life cycle cost assessment to form a practical foundation for predicting the real cost of electronic products.

Various manufacturing cost analysis methods are included in the course: process-flow, parametric, cost-of-ownership, and activity based costing. The effects of learning curves, data uncertainty, test and rework processes, and defects are considered in conjunction with these methodologies. In addition to manufacturing processes, the product life cycle costs associated with design, procurement, manufacturing waste, sustainment, and end-of-life are also addressed.  This course uses real life design scenarios from integrated circuit fabrication, electronic systems assembly, substrate fabrication, and testing at various levels.

The course follows the book:

P. Sandborn, Electronic Systems Cost Modeling, World Scientific, Singapore, 2012.

The outline of the course is:

Introduction

  • Basic concepts (cost, price, quality, yield)
  • Overview of Engineering Economics

Manufacturing Cost Analysis

  • Process-Flow Analysis (Technical Cost Modeling)
  • Yield (defect models)
  • Cost Of Ownership (COO)
  • Activity Based Costing (ABC)
  • Parametric Models
  • Test Economics
  • Rework
  • Part Sourcing

Variability and Uncertainty

  • Learning Curves
  • Uncertainty Analysis - Monte Carlo

Life Cycle Cost Analysis

  • Reliability
  • Sparing
  • Warranty
  • Burn-in
  • Availability
  • Obsolescence Management
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Service
  • Software Development Costing
  • End of Life (EOL) - Disassembly and Salvage

Contact Peter Sandborn at CALCE for more information.

Current Undergraduate Students | Current Graduate Students | Graduated Students
Current CALCE Students | Graduated CALCE Students

Current Graduate Students

  • Wilson, Alex (M.S. student) 
    Throwaway Electronics
  • Kashani-Pour, Amir (Ph.D. student in Reliability Engineering) 
    Design for Availability and Availability Contracting
  • Islam, Mohammad (Ph.D. student) 
    Software PHM
  • Lei, Xin (Ph.D. student) 
    Real Options Maintenance Planning
  • Bakhshi, Roozbeh (Ph.D. student) 
    Return on Investment
  • Breckon, Michael (Ph.D. student)
  • Bruck, Maira (M.S. student in Civil Engineering) 
    Levelized Cost of Energy

Graduated Students

  • Radhakrishnan, Jagadeesh (employed by AMD, CA)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2000
    A Process-Based Cost of Ownership Model for the Inclusion of High-Frequency Micromachined Structures on a Conventional IC
  • Subramanian, Gowrishankar (employed by AMD, CA)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2000
    Analysis Methods for Size/Cost Tradeoffs for PWBs with Embedded Passives
  • Subrahmanyam, Rajiv (employed by Netapps, AZ)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2000
    Economic Impact of Component Replacement in Electronic Systems
  • Trichy, Thiagarajan (employed by Oracle, CA)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2000
    Full Monte Carlo Technical Cost Modeling with Detailed Test/Rework Analysis for Use in a Multi-Attribute Optimization Environment
  • Sahasrabudhe, Shubhada (employed by Intel, AZ)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2001
    Implementation and Interpretation of Failure Free Operating Periods and Associated Confidence Limits in Electronic Systems Using the 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution
  • Raghavan, Ravi (employed by Hughes Network Systems, MD)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2001
    Analysis of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Operation Placement in the Technical Cost Modeling of Advanced Electrical Power System Modules
  • Ragan, Daniel (employed by Accenture, Washington DC)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2001
    Detailed Cost Modeling for use with Hardware/Software Co-Design of a System on a Chip
  • Becker, Daniel (employed by Northrop-Grumman, MD) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2002
    Development and Application of Yielded Cost in Electronic Manufacturing Process Improvement
  • Bhaskaran, Harish (employed by Oxford University, UK) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2006
    Die Shear Experimental and Modeling Verification of Chip-to-Chip Bonded Microelectromechanical Systems
  • Calhan, Derya 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2002
    An Application of the 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution to the Estimation of the Failure Free Operating Period of Electronic Systems
  • Salzano, Lawrence 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2003
    Experimental Reliability Assessment and Failure Analysis for Reworked and Trimmed Embedded Resistor Technologies
  • Goswami, Arindam (employed by Apple Computer) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2003
    Design Refresh Planning for System Software Changes Precipitated by Hardware Obsolescence
  • Deeds, Michael (employed by US Navy, MD)
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2004
    Qualificaiton of Metallized Optical Fiber Connections for Chip-Level MEMS Packaging
  • Shi, Zhen (employed by Prequel Solutions, PA)
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2004
    Optimization of Test/Diagnosis/Rework Location(s) and Characteristics in Electronic Systems Assembly
  • Singh, Pameet (employed by GE) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2001
    Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2004
    Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Obsolescence Sensitive Sustainment-Dominated Systems
  • Etienne, Bevin (employed by Dominica Sustainable Energy Corporation, Dominica) 
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2005
    Cost and Size Analysis and Optimization of Embedded Passives in Printed Circuit Boards
  • Kleyner, Andre (employed by Delphi Automotive, IN) 
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2005
    Determining Optimal Target Reliability Through Analysis of Validation Program Cost and Field Warranty Data
  • Bhaskaran, Harish (employed by University of Exeter, UK) 
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2006
    Nanomechanical Resonators Towards Single Spin Sensitivity
  • Feng, Dan (employed by Booz Allen Hamilton, MD) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2007
    Optimizing Lifetime Buy Quantities To Minimize Lifecycle Costs
  • Myers, Jessica (employed by U.S. Patent Office, Washington DC) 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2007
    Integration of Technology Roadmapping Information into DMSMS-Driven Design Refresh Planning of the V-22 Advanced Mission Computer
  • Jafreen, Rifat 
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2008
    A Cost Model for Assessing the Transition to Lead-Free Electronics
  • Feldman, Kiri (Law student at George Washington University Law School, Washington DC)  
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2008
    Electronic systems prognostics and health Management: A Return on Investment Analysis
  • Touw, Anduin (employed by Boeing, CA)  
    Ph.D. Reliability Engineering - 2008
    Latent Failures and Mixed Distributions: Using Mixed Distributions and Cost Modeling to Optimize the Management of Systems with Weak Latent Defect Subpopulations
  • Chaloupka, Andrew (employed by US Navy)  
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2009
    Lead-Free Electronics Use and Repair Dynamic Simulation
  • Jazouli, Taoufik (employed by CSSI, Washington DC)  
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2011
    A "Design for Availability" Methodology for Systems Design and Support
  • Haddad, Gilbert (employed by Schlumberger, TX)  
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2011
    An Options Approach to Quantify the Value of Decisions After Prognostics Indication
  • Probhakar, Varun (employed by Toyota, MI) 
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2012
    Electronic Part Total Cost of Ownership and Sourcing Decisions for Long Life Cycle Products
  • Nelson III, Raymond (employed by Solers)
    Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering - 2012
    Concurrent Multi-Part Multi-Event Design Refresh Planning Models Incorporating Solution Requirements and Part-Unique Temporal Constraints
  • Konoza, Anthony (employed by NavAir, MD)  
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2012
    An Evaluation of End of Maintenance Dates and Lifetime Buy Estimations for Electronic Systems Facing Obsolescence
  • Lillie, Edwin (employed by Intel, AZ)  
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2013
    Assessing the Cost of Risk for New Technology and Process Insertion
  • Schramm, Zev  (employed by Skanska USA, NY)
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2013
    A Model for Estimating the Cost Tradeoffs Associated with Open Systems
  • Allison, Hannah (employed by ExonMobile)  
    M.S. Mechanical Engineering - 2014
    A Simulation Approach to Modeling Contingency Strategies for Managing Electronic Part Supply Chain Disruptions

Post-Docs

  • Goudarzi, Navid (employed by University of North Carolina, Charlotte)
    Assistant Professor, Engineering Technology and Construction Management
  • Ziaei, Shiva (current)

For more information on the Electronic Systems Cost Modeling Laboratory, contact: 

Prof. Peter Sandborn, ESCML Director | (301) 405-3167 | sandborn@calce.umd.edu 

For more information on the CALCE Center contact:

Prof. Michael Pecht, CALCE Director | (301) 405-5323 | pecht@calce.umd.edu

 


Top