Evaluating Risk When Evidence Diverges: A Counterfeit Case Study

Michael Flores [Astute Electronics]

Abstract: 

Counterfeit risk assessment for electronic components frequently requires weighing multiple forms of evidence, which do not always converge, particularly for legacy devices affected by record retention limits, corporate transitions, and incomplete historical data. In practice, these conditions can create uncertainty in how empirical test results, historical traceability, and manufacturer input are interpreted and prioritized. As counterfeit mitigation practices mature, such divergence increasingly challenges how evidence is evaluated and how escalation decisions are made across the supply chain.

This case study examines a scenario in which a legacy semiconductor device was subjected to comprehensive counterfeit detection testing in accordance with SAE AS6171 by an independent ISO/IEC 17025-accredited laboratory. Visual, destructive, and electrical analyses identified no indicators consistent with counterfeit characteristics. In parallel, an administrative review performed by the successor manufacturer was unable to corroborate historical lot information and advised that the material be treated as suspect based on the absence of internal records.

The resulting divergence between empirical test results and administrative determination prompted evaluation of how different forms of evidence are weighted in counterfeit risk assessment and how those judgments influence escalation and reporting decisions. This presentation reviews the technical findings, the limitations of record-based validation for legacy components, and the evidentiary thresholds defined in DFARS 252.246-7007 and GIDEP SD-25.

The discussion highlights how reliance on incomplete administrative data may influence counterfeit determinations independent of physical test evidence, while also acknowledging the inherent limitations of counterfeit detection testing. Lessons learned from this case are presented for attendees on balancing empirical and administrative evidence, applying risk-based judgment, and preserving the integrity of counterfeit mitigation and reporting systems.

Biography: 

Michael Flores from Astute Electronics.

Dr. Diganta Das

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