Evaluating Risk When Evidence Diverges: A Counterfeit Case Study

Dane Reynolds [Astute Electronics]

Abstract: 

Counterfeit risk assessment for electronic components frequently requires weighing multiple forms of evidence, which do not always converge, particularly for legacy devices affected by record retention limits, corporate transitions, and incomplete historical data. In practice, these conditions can create uncertainty in how empirical test results, historical traceability, and manufacturer input are interpreted and prioritized. As counterfeit mitigation practices mature, such divergence increasingly challenges how evidence is evaluated and how escalation decisions are made across the supply chain.

This case study examines a scenario in which a legacy semiconductor device was subjected to comprehensive counterfeit detection testing in accordance with SAE AS6171 by an independent ISO/IEC 17025-accredited laboratory. Visual, destructive, and electrical analyses identified no indicators consistent with counterfeit characteristics. In parallel, an administrative review performed by the successor manufacturer was unable to corroborate historical lot information and advised that the material be treated as suspect based on the absence of internal records.

The resulting divergence between empirical test results and administrative determination prompted evaluation of how different forms of evidence are weighted in counterfeit risk assessment and how those judgments influence escalation and reporting decisions. This presentation reviews the technical findings, the limitations of record-based validation for legacy components, and the evidentiary thresholds defined in DFARS 252.246-7007 and GIDEP SD-25.

The discussion highlights how reliance on incomplete administrative data may influence counterfeit determinations independent of physical test evidence, while also acknowledging the inherent limitations of counterfeit detection testing. Lessons learned from this case are presented for attendees on balancing empirical and administrative evidence, applying risk-based judgment, and preserving the integrity of counterfeit mitigation and reporting systems.

Biographies: 

Dane holds a degree in Industrial Engineering, is an APICS Certified Supply Chain Professional, a Project Management Professional (PMP), and holds a Green Belt in Lean Six Sigma. He regularly collaborates with electronics manufacturing professionals on the risks associated with counterfeit components, speaks at industry events (SMTA, ASQ, ARMA) and features in publications, mostly recently being quoted in the Wall Street Journal on the current risks faced during the semiconductor shortage. As Vice President of Operations at Astute Group, a leading global distributor of Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) devices, Dane is accountable for the quality of all material that passes through Astute’s AS6081 certified and AS6171 accredited anti-counterfeit inspection laboratories before going on to be utilized in high-reliability applications within the aerospace, defense, medical, and other critical sectors that cannot be compromised by substandard or counterfeit product.

Dr. Diganta Das

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Kristin Nafstad

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